Pentagon Assessment Says China Could Outmatch US Forces in a Taiwan Conflict

New Delhi | December 11, 2025 A recently revealed top-secret Pentagon assessment paints a troubling picture of how a future conflict between China and the United States over Taiwan might unfold. The document, known as the “Overmatch Brief,” warns that China has built the capability to destroy major US military assets—including fighter jets, large naval ships and key satellites—using weapons that are far cheaper and highly advanced. The findings, first reported by The New York Times, have raised questions about America’s readiness if a crisis erupts in the Pacific. The brief was prepared by the Pentagon’s Office of Net Assessment, a division known for long-term, big-picture evaluations of US military strength. According to officials familiar with the document, the analysis compares America’s dependence on costly, high-profile systems with China’s growing use of inexpensive but powerful technologies designed for rapid, targeted attacks. One official recalled that when a national security staffer first received the document in 2021, he turned pale, realizing that many US advantages had been quietly undermined. “Every trick we had,” the official reportedly said, “the Chinese had redundancy after redundancy.” The report’s findings come at a time of rising tension in the region. Just days earlier, Beijing had issued a strong warning that it would “crush” any foreign effort to interfere in what it considers its internal Taiwan issue. The statement followed Japan’s announcement that it might deploy missiles on an island near Taiwan, signaling how seriously countries in the region view the growing military risks. The Pentagon brief warns that in simulated war games, major US ships—such as the Navy’s new Ford-class aircraft carriers—are frequently destroyed early in the conflict. Despite this, the US Navy still plans to build at least nine more of these carriers in the coming years. The document suggests that relying heavily on such expensive, high-visibility assets may place the United States at a disadvantage against an opponent refining cheaper systems designed to target them. Another alarming detail from the brief is the presence of malware allegedly inserted by a China-backed hacking group known as Volt Typhoon. According to the report, this malware has been found in networks that control power grids, communication systems and water supplies for several US military bases. The concern is that if a conflict breaks out, these systems could be disrupted, slowing down America’s ability to move troops, supply gear and maintain basic operations. Such disruptions could even spill over to civilian infrastructure, affecting the broader population. The assessment also highlights weaknesses in the US military’s supply chain, emphasizing that critical parts and materials could become inaccessible during a crisis. China, meanwhile, has invested heavily in building layers of protection and backup systems to keep its own military functioning even under heavy attack. At the heart of the issue is Taiwan, a self-governed island that Beijing claims as its territory. China has never ruled out using force to bring Taiwan under its control. Taiwan’s government, however, firmly rejects Beijing’s position. Its leaders maintain that the island’s future should be decided only by its 23 million people. Taiwan’s Premier, Cho Jung-tai, recently stated that a “return” to China is not something the island will accept, underscoring how far apart the two sides remain. The Pentagon document signals a broader shift in the global balance of military power. While the United States remains one of the world’s most capable military forces, the brief suggests that its long-held advantage in high-tech warfare is narrowing. As China expands its defenses and designs efficient tools aimed at neutralizing America’s strengths, questions grow about how the US will respond if tensions over Taiwan continue to escalate. The classified assessment, though not publicly released, has already sparked debate across strategic circles. It raises pressing questions about what the United States must do—militarily, technologically and diplomatically—to avoid being caught off guard should a conflict break out in Asia’s most contested region. [11/12, 10:16] Jefry Jenifer: Pentagon Assessment Says China Could Outmatch US Forces in a Taiwan Conflict A new Pentagon document, called the “Overmatch Brief,” has revealed some serious concerns about how the US military would perform if a war broke out with China over Taiwan. The secret assessment says China has built strong systems that could destroy US fighter jets, major warships and even satellites. What worries officials most is that China is using cheaper, smarter and more advanced weapons, while the US still depends on very costly systems that are easier to target. The report first came to light through The New York Times. One US official who saw the document back in 2021 was shocked, saying it showed that China had backups and countermeasures for almost everything the US could try. The timing of the report is important because tensions around Taiwan have been rising. China recently warned it would “crush” any foreign attempt to get involved in the Taiwan issue, especially after Japan talked about placing missiles on an island close to Taiwan. The brief also says China-linked hackers, known as Volt Typhoon, may have placed malware inside systems that control power, water and communication for US military bases. This could slow down America’s response during a crisis and might even affect civilian services. The war games mentioned in the document show that large US ships, including the Navy’s newest aircraft carriers, would likely be destroyed quickly in a conflict. Even so, the US plans to build more of them. Meanwhile, Taiwan continues to say the island’s future should be decided only by its people. Its leaders have made it clear that joining China is not an option.